tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120982399236985142.post3058224147928570257..comments2024-02-07T06:48:23.474-05:00Comments on Sudbury Steve May: Can we Finally Retire Useless Poll-Based Seat Projections?Sudbury Stevehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03959184192546029807noreply@blogger.comBlogger1125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8120982399236985142.post-29704219344527813162015-10-20T10:18:39.918-04:002015-10-20T10:18:39.918-04:00The incumbency factor was affected by the 30 CPC m...The incumbency factor was affected by the 30 CPC members who chose not to run ( plus some from other parties ) the addition of 30 new seats and redistribution. there was no incumbent in 20-25% of the ridings . No surprise the results were a surprise. <br /><br />The demographic influence was startling. Turnout was up with a lot more young people voting. The October surprise was the swing to the LPC by a lot of seniors. Both these went against accepted wisdom.<br /><br />With demographics and incumbency unreliable, you may be right. Poll predictions can't be accurate.<br /><br />rumleyfipshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03346146988416679423noreply@blogger.com